Macro Highlights: Is Inflation and Employment Peaking?, Mixed Retail Sales Results, Hot Cocoa, And An "Income-Driven Expansion"

Here's a summation of the key global economic and market signals, trends, etc., that we touched on in our internal log in recent days... Be sure and peruse all the way to the end, as we highlight a broad range of topics.

4/18/2024

Yesterday saw a rebound in our commodity-oriented, non-US equity and fixed income positions, essentially resulting in a resumption of the recent trend where our core allocation notably outperforms the broad US equity averages. That said, and to be clear, this week’s comments in that regard should not be taken as me suggesting that equities are a benchmark that we strive to match or beat, they’re not, it’s simply an observation, given that our industry indeed scores itself relative to equity markets, which, in my view, is a potentially dangerous distraction from the task of responsibly managing (and risk-managing) client portfolios.

Economic Update (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Macro Highlights

Dear Clients, per my last note, you'll be receiving fewer blog notifications going forward, as we're now summarizing for you the key global economic and market signals, trends, etc., that we record in our internal log each week... Be sure and peruse all the way to the end, as we highlight a broad range of topics.

As this week comes to a close, the world is on heightened alert over concerning signals that an attack on Israel by Iran is imminent. 

Resulting in stocks down, oil, gold and bonds up in early Friday trading.

Here are some key bullet points from this week's log (clarification added parenthetically):      Have a nice weekend!

Changing Up The Blog A Bit

Dear Readers,

You'll be receiving fewer blog notifications going forward, as we've decided to forego sending out a daily note. Instead we'll be offering up a concise weekly summation of the thoughts and the data we compile each day in our internal macro log. Along with the usual video report on our findings from the weekly scoring of the PWA Index -- where we'll throw in some commentary on the weekly scoring of our financial stress and sentiment indices as well.

The technical market updates will continue, but, to avoid redundancy, I'll produce those only when there's a notable change in the technical setup across equities, yields, the dollar, etc.

Plus, we'll continue to summarize for you the results of the monthly scoring of our equity market conditions index as well.

The goal here is to be less piecemeal, and, thus, to provide a more accessible and succinct accounting of what our work says about the ongoing state of general investment conditions.

Your feedback of course is always welcome.

Thanks so much,
Marty

Economic Update: Hot Jobs Number And Strong Equity Market Reaction, What Gives? (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

More on Sentiment, Valuations, the Technicals, and What Will Move Stocks Big (Up or Down) In the Short Run (video)

Dear Clients, here's yet another important one to take in! 

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Key Highlights

 Key highlights from our latest messaging herein:

Yesterday:

Stocks continued to advance over the past month, despite the notable headwinds outlined in our February report.

While sector leadership remains bullish – and breadth has improved notably – valuation, sentiment and the technicals, in particular, continue to reflect significant downside risk going forward.

Bottom line: Per the above, and the entirety of this report, current overall conditions leave us uninspired to add measurable equity market risk, or to hedge less, at this juncture.